Prophesied recession from 28/11/2015

By Prince Agwu

I am no economist neither have I recently participated in any of its classes. My last class sitting for an economics lesson came in high school. However, as a Social Worker, Public Speaker and Sociopolitical Analyst, I expediently had to groom myself in its mechanics so as to offer explanations to situational economic analysis for my clients and my audience,  as respected national and global citizens.

The economic situation of our country keeps deteriorating by the day with no clear blueprint yet for a salvation. This is implying that the Nigerian nation is having professionals who cannot make the best out of the way things turn out as vivid in the true definition of ingenuity. Just as stated in the words of Senator Shehu Sani – “local professionals as against superstars”.

Without mincing words, the diversification of our economy away from oil is now a political jingle played at campaign stations. Recently, the promiser and producer of such jingle arrogated to himself a ministerial title in that juicy area that should have its focus curtailed in a supposed time of diversification. Thus, inexperience has made Nigerians pay for the product of that ministry through their noses hitherto, which has become an antecedent for an unreported inflation.

The intense fall in benchmark pricing for crude-oil  has deepened our crises. In the heat of this malice, co-oil producing states had to devalue their currencies to keep an interim economic stability and I wonder what Nigeria’s financial power house should be thinking now? Exchange is now at 198naira to 1 dollar and it’s been postulated to be at about 243naira to a dollar in a year’s time.

To add more salt to the injury, Nigeria was delisted from JP. Morgan’s bonding facility with similar sanction likely to come from the Barclays. This incidence spelt for Nigeria the loss of a reported equivalent of about 200billion dollars. This inadvertently has amounted to the lack of credible sources for debts financing as its stocks are currently plummeting on the other side and the unprofessionally implemented TSA initiative breeding internal rancour between commercial banks and the government. Hence, it is becoming glaring that posterity is about being mortgaged.

In the midst of such anomaly, billions of Naira have been spent on presidential travels cum maintenance of presidential air fleets. It is also reported that government spending would increase by over 56%. This is leaving Nigerians with the question of a haemorrhage proposed 2016 8trillion Naira budget, branded “zero based budgeting”, which is the likeliness of economical assassination, brutality and terrorism on the arithmetic populace of Nigeria.

It is in this regard that reputed Jan Daehn of Ashmore Group Plc in concordance to the Bloomberg’s analysis has this to say –  “So far the Buhari administration has done all the wrong things. Not only has he been incredibly slow in taking any action, when he finally has taken action on the economic front it’s been diametrically opposed to sensible policy. That is a major disappointment given expectations prior to his election”. What more should we say in the face of such truism asserted by an expert in the field of financial play?

Finally, the workforce in the persons of ministers charged with an executive responsibility to remedy and ratify these anomalies have been dazed a great blow. An annual 8,500 dollar pay as against 50,000 dollars received by their colleagues in Ghana, makes up for the possibility of a concerted scientific corruption as a likely feature of the instituted cabinet. Though, such remuneration reflects an austere measure but the absence of proper communication with affected persons before reaching such compromise is undemocratic, callous and amounts to perpetual perniciousness. I am certain Nigerians are learning. “Change can never be a political jingle, it is a worthy price being paid for progress”. When change becomes a political jingle it amounts to retrogressiveness.

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